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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 06-20-2008, 01:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Bourne View Post
No, it wouldn't be wonderful. Fortunately, it's unlikely to happen.

You admit that you don't understand military capabilities yet you assume Iran has superior abilities. That is a foolish assumption. We could level Iran in days without putting one boot on the ground.
No, I assume Iran is better equipped than a bunch of badly trained insurgents armed with what are now relatively primitive, if lethal, weapons.
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Old 06-20-2008, 01:11 PM
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No, I assume Iran is better equipped than a bunch of badly trained insurgents armed with what are now relatively primitive, if lethal, weapons.
That doesn't matter, it's the difference between a war and an occupation. We're not gonna drop our troops in the middle of the city, and have them stand in the open and wait to be shot at, we'd use tactical air strikes to take out their military capibilities. remember how we took out Saddam's Army? That is what it is going to be like.
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Old 06-20-2008, 01:12 PM
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Even if we devastated Iran with an airstrike, it would be very likely given their fundamentalist extremism that they could start an Al Qaeda like Shia organization that would have targets in America. Then there are our troops in Iraq that would be a readily accessible target.

I just read an article claiming the Israelies just put their military through a rehearsal of bombing Iran. With that scenario, it would be expected that Iran would join Hezbollah and other Shia militia groups against Israel. Syria is a Shia nation and might join.
Well, Israel has repelled them time and time before, and since they are their own country, they can defend themselves.
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Old 06-20-2008, 01:14 PM
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Even if we devastated Iran with an airstrike, it would be very likely given their fundamentalist extremism that they could start an Al Qaeda like Shia organization that would have targets in America. Then there are our troops in Iraq that would be a readily accessible target.

I just read an article claiming the Israelies just put their military through a rehearsal of bombing Iran. With that scenario, it would be expected that Iran would join Hezbollah and other Shia militia groups against Israel. Syria is a Shia nation and might join.
The most likely scenario is surgical strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. Most are located in remote and sparsely populated areas so collateral damage would be minimal.

I agree that it is likely that Israel will make the first move.

All of this is preventable if Iran opens up to full scrutiny by the international inspections agencies.
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Old 06-20-2008, 01:33 PM
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That doesn't matter, it's the difference between a war and an occupation. We're not gonna drop our troops in the middle of the city, and have them stand in the open and wait to be shot at, we'd use tactical air strikes to take out their military capibilities. remember how we took out Saddam's Army? That is what it is going to be like.
So why did we bother to occupy Iraq after? the same would have to happen with Iran and I hradly think the Iranian air force and navy would be destroyed without causing significant casualties to the US. You also have the possibility of Russian involvement effecting blocking any attack on Iran.
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Old 06-20-2008, 01:38 PM
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So why did we bother to occupy Iraq after? the same would have to happen with Iran and I hradly think the Iranian air force and navy would be destroyed without causing significant casualties to the US. You also have the possibility of Russian involvement effecting blocking any attack on Iran.
Because our goal was to impliment a democracy there, with Iran, we won't have that goal, only destroying their military power and nuclear weapons. I can see that if the US goes alone, Russia will get involved, but if the UN goes with a large coallition, then Russia will likely just verbally protest. Because if they actually fight and kill UN members, that will draw violence against Russia on multiple fronts. A quick strike would end Iran's military and then it would just be Russia (and possibly China) fighting on multiple fronts (basically another world war with millions of deaths). Russia may believe that Iran has a right to have nuclear weapons, but I doubt that they will fight for that.
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Old 06-20-2008, 01:53 PM
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So why did we bother to occupy Iraq after? the same would have to happen with Iran and I hradly think the Iranian air force and navy would be destroyed without causing significant casualties to the US. You also have the possibility of Russian involvement effecting blocking any attack on Iran.
Our goal would be quite different then our intensions were in Iraq. There is no need for an occupation. The Iranian air force and navy could easily be neutralized with standoff weapons systems. Russia won't risk being seen as assisting in Iran's nuclear program. Russia won't get involved, especially if the strikes are surgical.
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Old 06-20-2008, 02:08 PM
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The plan for airstrikes that I have read about would involve taking out the nuclear facilities and then taking out all the infrastructure Iran would need to fight back, like electricity, communications, etc... Then the alleged plan would be not to invade and leave it up to the Iranian people to depose the current regime. Does that sounds just a weeeeeee bit neo con artisty to anyone. Remember Iraq would take a couple of months, be a cakewalk, their oil would pay for our invasion and presence there, they would throw flowers at our feet, ad nauseum? All of the neo cons with an Israeli agenda are still around and doing the same old, same old flim flam.

First of all, you can't have that many "surgical strikes." There would be collateral damage and it would be in all of the news. Yes, America would win a conventional war. When we did exercises and charged one of our own generals to role play an Iranian general in war games, he went straight to assymetrical war tactics and WON. No one can predict it would be the same in reality, but assymetrical war is hard to write off.

Our troops might become targets for Iranians infiltrating across the border into Iraq. There are also Iraqi Shia Muslims loyal to the Iranian Ayotellah al Khoumeni. My biggest concern is the hatred set loose by airstrikes would be targetted at our troops. They might bear the brunt of the backlash.

And what if we open two battlefronts in the region when many if not most military experts are saying our military is over extended as it is?

The deal with insurgents is always that they don't have to win. They just can't lose. That should sound familiar from our own history. It is exactly what George Washington did for most of the Revolutionary War.

And then there is the possibility that we would go broke fighting in Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan - just like the Soviets in Afghanistan.

Then what happens if Osama organizes another 9/11 with the Al Qaeda leadership? That is another battlefront with Pakistan.
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Old 06-20-2008, 02:14 PM
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The plan for Iraq was always to occupy, just not occupy this long, Iran would have no plans to occupy at all.
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Old 06-20-2008, 02:20 PM
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The real plan for Iraq has never been withdrawal, it is to maintain a US military presence permanently. That is exactly why those permanent military bases are being built. Four are already done and look like cities complete with movie theatres and golf courses.

Iran by the same neo con plan simply needs a regime change. Why? It would be fairly easy under normal conditions to block off the Persian Gulf tanker traffic.
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