your right it just means that all of that money goes to one person rather then alot of people.

I don't see an answer to this.....
Funny how that works sometime.

*crickets*


:D

No it doesn't. That would be 'monopoly' control of oil resources and no one has that, nor is the US seeking to achieve that.

Your 'facts' also include the assumption that oil production rates will remain constant (and maximal) right up to the last moment when the well runs dry. That is not credible.

Your 'facts' also include taking OPEC's officially published oil reserves at face value. As most people know, OPEC countries manipulate their claims of reserve oil as a way to leverage their bargaining of OPEC oil quotas. These officially published reserve figures are not credible.

I'm familiar with the data. I recognize your number as one popularly published about a month ago. My number applies a 25% discount to that popularly published and inflated number to make it more realistic. My discount is extremely conservative - many experts suggest a higher discounting will be necessary given the character of oil production in a post-peak environment (cf - US oil production data from the 1970's - US production figures were higher cost and lower output than predicted every single year).

Strange since that number was produced by my own math. I didn't take it from any published document. But if someone else independently came up with the exact same date I'd consider it validated. Heck, I even accounted for leap years in my calculations.

Yes, as I clearly stated, my assumed date does keep consumption at current rates. I took the highest estimate of yearly usage that I could find. At some point usage will decline as alternative fuels hit the market, as the price simply gets too high, and as supplies run short. So I would expect that consumption will continue to increase in the coming years, plateau, then decline.

I would assume you mean that OPEC is understating their reserves? So as to drive the price higher?

Since you questioned it, with some validity, I went to three different estimates of proven reserves, took their average, stuck with the 30Bbl/year consumption rate (I really can't estimate how high that will yet climb. Most statistics pointed to a current use of 25Bbl/year, so I am 20% over that already.)

Based on that, my new estimate now brings that date a bit closer:

07-APR-2048

Proven Estimates

Consumption

I stand corrected.