Since our friend Marquis de Sade (correctly) noted that I am "infatuated" with Latin America....

Background (trying to be as neutral as possible):

Alvaro Uribe, the President of Colombia enjoys pretty strong popularity amongst the Colombian people, mostly do having been pretty effective in his military campaign against the FARC rebels, which are currently in one of the more difficult positions that they have found themselves in quite a while.

On the other hand, he has received heavy criticism for his alleged involvement with the right wing paramilitary organizations, who generally make the FARC look like the children of Gandhi and Mother Teresa. He has so far escaped direct implication, but several of his political allies, including a cousin, are either in prison or facing charges/investigations for their contacts with the AUC.

More background:

Latin America has a pervasive problem of demagogue leaders who come into power, then through corruption, elimination of political rivals, or occasionally because they are genuinely good governors, then stay there. This has led to systems that are built around personalities rather than institution, which is a major contributor to the chronic political instability in the entire region. Conscious of this, most modern Latin American constitutions have a reelection restriction. That is to say, a president can usually not consecutive terms.

Colombia was one of these countries. In 2004 they voted to change the rules so that Uribe could run for reelection, an election that he won in 2006. However, it has recently surfaced that not all was on the up and up with this reform. A Colombian lawmaker is currently serving a three year house arrest after confessing to having been bribed by Uribe allies to vote in favour of the change, a vote which proved to be key for the victory. It is unclear as to whether or not Uribe will be implicated in it, but he appears to be trying to preempt such investigations by seizing a political mandate by having a redo of the election to determine what the Colombian people want.

I imagine that he's trying to pull it off because after that it would be hard for political opponents to touch him since he could site his re-win. If he gets implicated before that happens, however, it could have serious political consequences.


BBC NEWS | Americas | Colombia's Uribe calls for vote

Thoughts?



(P.S. Yes, bringing up Chavez in this thread is actually legitimate... let's see who can figure out why. )

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"Have you no decency, sir? At long last, have you left no sense of decency?"
-Joseph Welch

Regadless of his popularity within Colombia, which is significant, Uribe is probably doing the right thing by allowing a new election. However, as you made clear, if he's indicted in the bribery scandal, things will not go well for him.

One way or the other, the next Presidente will likely be just as hard on FARC as Uribe, though likely, just as corrupt as well.

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"Yes. That's correct. Making a statement that's 100% true can't be bigoted."

You think so? See, my, albeit cynical, analysis was that he is holding this new election, which he will probably win, as a means to to stave off being implicated.

It looks to me almost as a tacit confession "yes I broke the rules, but it doesn't matter."

Even if I liked Uribe (and God knows I don't), I would consider his presidency illegitimate.

The vote that should be retaken isn't the one that put him into office again, but the one that was taken allowing him to run again.

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"Have you no decency, sir? At long last, have you left no sense of decency?"
-Joseph Welch

Yeah, I guess I was unclear.

I meant 'doing the right thing' in terms of his own political future, not 'doing the right thing' for the Colombian people.

You're right, he's probably doing this to deflect political attacks, but either way, he'll probably come out on top.

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"Yes. That's correct. Making a statement that's 100% true can't be bigoted."

Ah... right. Agreed.

Also agreed. I won't be sorry to see the backside of Uribe, but unfortunately it probably won't be until the end of his term, legitimate or not.

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"Have you no decency, sir? At long last, have you left no sense of decency?"
-Joseph Welch

The truly unfortunate thing, and this is true throughout the continent, if not the world, is that even if he is booted out of office and he and his party are totally discredited, whoever replaces him won't be any better in terms of the daily life of the average Jose and Josefina.

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"Yes. That's correct. Making a statement that's 100% true can't be bigoted."

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Defeating market theocrats since 2001.