As an Arizonan, this is what I see. Western democrats are splitting for Obama, and so are a lot of the Independents. Barr will be pulling a good size vote. To be hones, one of our local issues is the guy has pulled a salary and not done jack for the state - for months. No idea if folks from Illinois have the same beef. The reservations are very democratic - and they do vote. Chicanos seem to have crossed over to Obama - and most of small town AZ is chicano. Tucson is a solid blue, and Phoenix is actually purple. It really could happen.


Arizona Officially Within Two Points!
Tuesday October 28, 2008 2:55 pm

Earlier, I made a pitch to get Barack Obama to come to Arizona on the basis of the closing polls:

Obama does indeed have a real shot, and suddenly a lot of people nationally have caught on to that fact. Pollster.com. DKos. Chuck Todd and MSNBC. And, best of all if you know Arizona politics over the last three plus decades or so, Bruce Merrill and the Cronkite8 poll. Dr. Merrill is the gold standard in Arizona polling, and he has a phenomenal record for accuracy.

Well, the preliminary word is in from Dr. Merrill. Hold onto your hats folks, we got us a neck and neck horserace!

Merrill's brand new poll, taken from sampling over the weekend and Monday, in it's entirety, is to be released tonight at 7:00 pm local Arizona time and has McCain up by two little itty bitty points: McCain 46% Obama 44% and Obama still seen as closing with a full week left and undecideds still expected to break significantly Obama!!!!!

Bruce Merrill is a native Arizonan, has been teaching at Arizona State since 1971, and has been doing the absolute finest and most accurate polling of Arizona races for many decades. He really is the gold standard here.

This is fantastic news! Unless, of course, you are John McCain.....Emptywheel BREAKING NEWS: Arizona Officially Within Two Points!

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Happiness is always a by-product. It is probably a matter of temperament, and for anything I know it may be glandular. But it is not something that can be demanded from life, and if you are not happy you had better stop worrying about it and see what treasures you can pluck from your own brand of unhappiness.
- Robertson Davies

That's very surprising. I always figure AZ to the the reddest of the red, and with McCain being from here.....

Maybe we're finally catching on to McCain's "leadership"

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"Oh, bother", said Pooh, as he chambered another round...

When Bill Maher came here to interview people for his show, he named AZ as the epicenter of the culture war.

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Happiness is always a by-product. It is probably a matter of temperament, and for anything I know it may be glandular. But it is not something that can be demanded from life, and if you are not happy you had better stop worrying about it and see what treasures you can pluck from your own brand of unhappiness.
- Robertson Davies

Looking around the neighborhoods and bumper stickers here, (Tucson), it seems to be about 60% Obama. But, nobody cares what Tucson thinks, overwhelmed every year by Phoenix......

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"Oh, bother", said Pooh, as he chambered another round...

Actually, he said Tucson was the epicenter come to think of it. Tucson is liberal/libertarian to the extreme.

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Happiness is always a by-product. It is probably a matter of temperament, and for anything I know it may be glandular. But it is not something that can be demanded from life, and if you are not happy you had better stop worrying about it and see what treasures you can pluck from your own brand of unhappiness.
- Robertson Davies

Yeah - they are the beheemoth. However, even some of the Sun City folks are getting restless,from what I hear.

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Happiness is always a by-product. It is probably a matter of temperament, and for anything I know it may be glandular. But it is not something that can be demanded from life, and if you are not happy you had better stop worrying about it and see what treasures you can pluck from your own brand of unhappiness.
- Robertson Davies

SO now will you vote?

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Giving it far more thought than before. Not as much of a forgone conclusion as it traditionally is, here....

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"Oh, bother", said Pooh, as he chambered another round...

McCain is having major issues holding onto any state. Though I didn't think that AZ would be one that he lost, I knew that he would lose a lot of red states and not pick up any blue states.

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Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils

Never take life seriously. Nobody gets out alive anyway.

When I die, I want to go peacefully like my Grandfather did, in his sleep -- not screaming, like the passengers in his car.

A computer once beat me at chess, but it was no match for me at kick boxing.

The only reason people get lost in thought is because it's unfamiliar territory.

I could've eaten Alphabit soup and crapped out a better post!

Jojo, this is just HILARIOUS. Insane McCain is going to get absolutely creamed next week...

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