Keeping Track of Primary Dates and Winners - Page 2 - Political Fever

ViolaLee · #11 (**permalink**) 01-29-2008, 11:27 PM

.........................................delegates = winner take all in FL
McCain........ 677,865........ 36%.... 57
Romney....... 582,806........ 31%..... 0
Giuliani ........275,676........ 15% .....0
Huckabee ....253,886........ 13% .....0
Paul............ 60,583............ 3% ....0
Thompson.... 21,868 ..........1% ......0

ViolaLee · #12 (**permalink**) 01-29-2008, 11:30 PM

Delgates awarded so far:

Barack Obama 63
Hillary Clinton 48
John Edwards 26

John McCain 93
Mitt Romney 59
Mike Huckabee 40
Fred Thompson 5
Ron Paul 4
Rudy Giuliani 1
Duncan Hunter 1

ViolaLee · #13 (**permalink**) 02-02-2008, 11:11 PM

Iowa 1/3/08
Democrat - Barack Obama
Republican - Mike Huckabee

Wyoming 01/3/2008
Republican - Mitt Romney

New Hampshire 01/08/2008
Democrat - Hillary Clinton
Republican - John McCain

Michigan 01/15/2008
Democrat - no delegates
Republican - Mitt Romney

South Carolina 01/19/2008
Republican - John McCain

Nevada 01/19/2008
Democrat - Hillary Clinton
Republican - Mitt Romney

South Carolina 01/26/2008
Democrat - Barack Obama

Florida 01/29/08
Democrat - no delegates
Republican - John McCain

Maine 02/01/2008
Republican - Mitt Romney

Finny · #14 (**permalink**) 02-03-2008, 12:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ViolaLee

Delgates awarded so far:

Barack Obama 63
Hillary Clinton 48
John Edwards 26

John McCain 93
Mitt Romney 59
Mike Huckabee 40
Fred Thompson 5
Ron Paul 4
Rudy Giuliani 1
Duncan Hunter 1

Edwards, Thompson, Giuliani and Hunter... lost all rights to those Delegates.. So they become open to anyone.. and Ron Paul has 6.

AmericanDreamer · #15 (**permalink**) 02-03-2008, 01:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Finny

Edwards, Thompson, Giuliani and Hunter... lost all rights to those Delegates.. So they become open to anyone.. and Ron Paul has 6.

Thank you for being Politically Correct

Finny · #16 (**permalink**) 02-03-2008, 01:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AmericanDreamer

Thank you for being Politically Correct

This election comes down to Delegates.. for both sides.. rather get it right the first time.. instead of posting incorrect information all the time.

ViolaLee · #17 (**permalink**) 02-03-2008, 03:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Finny

Edwards, Thompson, Giuliani and Hunter... lost all rights to those Delegates.. So they become open to anyone.. and Ron Paul has 6.

Got a link for Paul's 6? The info I posted on January 22 remains the same today, on the MSNBC webpage I sited.

National overview - 2008 Primary Results - MSNBC.com

AmericanDreamer · #18 (**permalink**) 02-03-2008, 12:26 PM

Today is February 3rd, 2008. It is a good idea to update the information provided, especially in a thread like this. Accuracy is important. Alot has happened since January 22nd. Maybe someone should be getting information from sites that stay current. Just a suggestion.

Here is the updated delegate link that was requested. Ron Paul's results as of today:

Election Center 2008: Candidates - Election & Politics News from CNN.com

Ron Paul
Magic Number: 1,191
Delegate Total: 6
Currently in: 4TH PLACE IN TOTAL DELEGATES

ViolaLee · #19 (**permalink**) 02-03-2008, 08:45 PM

I think what's happening is, the process is so screwed up, counting the delegates when it's this close isn't an exact science. That's why their numbers are different. I'm sticking with the MSNBC numbers for now, but thanks for the CNN link. CNN is still showing Edwards as a candidate...

Quote:

On Tuesday, about two-thirds of the Democratic delegates will be awarded according to the share of the vote that Clinton and Obama receive in each district. Another third will be awarded according to their share of the statewide vote, giving a statewide winner an advantage.

Hitting certain thresholds in each district offers a chance to pick up an extra delegate. A candidate who wins 15 percent of the vote automatically gets one delegate. After that, it becomes even more arcane.

The arithmetic of proportional representation shows why it will be so difficult for Clinton or Obama to gain an advantage.

Districts get delegates based on the Democratic turnout in the last two presidential elections. They range from three in a Bakersfield district to six in San Francisco.

In districts with an even number of delegates, Obama and Clinton stand a good chance of splitting evenly unless they blow away their rival.

Take a district with four delegates, like San Jose. Clinton or Obama has to get a big win, capturing 63 percent of the vote, to get a 3-to-1 delegate advantage, campaign experts said. If the winner falls just shy of that threshold, winning say 62 percent, he or she splits the delegates 2-2 with the loser who got just 38 percent of the vote, because the winner failed to breach the threshold.

Districts with an odd number of delegates might produce an advantage, but it's still tough.

Take a district with five delegates, like Walnut Creek. A candidate only has to get 30.1 percent of the vote to win two delegates. That means a candidate that wins 69.9 percent of the vote picks up just one extra delegate for a 3-to-2 split.

Breaching these thresholds will be difficult for both Clinton and Obama. Even their various strongholds can cancel each other out. That's why insiders believe the delegate count is going to be too close to call the race.

"What you really look for are the districts where you're near a delegate threshold, and the delegate threshold is a percentage of the vote that you need to get the next delegate or prevent yourself from losing your last delegate," said Jeff Berman, an Obama campaign aide.

"It's literally painstakingly sitting down, doing the math on how it works in each district," agreed senior Clinton adviser John Emerson.

Delegate distribution challenges math acumen

Finny · #20 (**permalink**) 02-03-2008, 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ViolaLee

I think what's happening is, the process is so screwed up, counting the delegates when it's this close isn't an exact science. That's why their numbers are different. I'm sticking with the MSNBC numbers for now, but thanks for the CNN link. CNN is still showing Edwards as a candidate...

Delegate distribution challenges math acumen

You shouldn't be sticking with any of them.. because NOBODY has any official Delegate votes.. You have to wait until the Conventions til the Delegates vote.

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