I'll start off by saying its 6 am and I am calling the jobs report coming out this morning to be a -60,000 to -65,000.. pushing unemployment to 5.2%

In the next 18 months taking us in to late 2009.

The Fed will put interest rates between 6.5% to 9%, starting with a 1% hike in July 08 (possible a .50% later this month, depending on future job reports).. This hike in interest rates will be raised to combat inflation ( not measured by CPI) at 11% (CPI numbers being 5%). If the inflation is getting out of hand quicker then the Fed thought, the Interest rate will go up very quickly.. to 6% with in 2 months.

Starting 2Q 09 we will be in full recession led by the Consumer sector.

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Pioneers are walking all around singing songs about Lenin and they should be shot for it.

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"If you are looking for the guilty, you need only look into a mirror"- V

It is inaccurate to say that I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office.
H. L. Mencken

Beagán agus a rá go maith.

Economic Left/Right: 3.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -2.87

A bit off on the numbers but close. I think the rest is about right. The 30+ billion the FED gives banks and other lenders daily ( I heard on CNN) will catch up someday, so add that to the equation.
Unemployment rate jumps to 5.5 percent in May By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer
1 hour, 21 minutes ago

Unemployment rate jumps to 5.5 percent in May - Yahoo! News

WASHINGTON - The nation's unemployment rate jumped to 5.5 percent in May — the biggest monthly rise since 1986 — as nervous employers cut 49,000 jobs.


The latest snapshot of business conditions showed a deeply troubled economy, with dwindling job opportunities in a time of continuing hardship in the housing, credit and financial sectors.

"It was ugly," said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research

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yeah, being off by +11,000 is actually good means there is some growth. I don't see the unemployment rate at true 5.5% as this is "seasonal".. Newly Graduated College Kids and Highschool kids will start working by the end of this month.. so I still stay its at 5.2%.

The Fed gave more the 30 Billion. They gave 30 billion to just one bank.

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Pioneers are walking all around singing songs about Lenin and they should be shot for it.

Handlebars

"If you are looking for the guilty, you need only look into a mirror"- V

It is inaccurate to say that I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office.
H. L. Mencken

Beagán agus a rá go maith.

Economic Left/Right: 3.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -2.87

Well, Australian confidence has dropped dramatically since the election of the Rudd Labor Government and since their first budget, there is a lot less confidence again. They have single handedly destroyed the solar panelling industry by putting a means test for the rebate at $100,000. Earn over it and you get no assistance. People on incomes below $100,000 do not make this market. One business lost over $500,000 within a month and retrenched 3 employees. Other solar panel companies report that majority of their business has disappeared. The governments brain dead Minister for the Environment, Peter Garrett, says that having a booming solar panel industry is bad for them. Really, what idiots!

And the new president will, of course, shoulder all of the blame.

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Censorship reflects society's lack of confidence in itself. It is a hallmark of an authoritarian regime. ~Potter Stewart