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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 09-27-2008, 03:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Jojo View Post
The one reason that I suspect Obama will win convincingly is that polls can't contact cell phones - and Obama is really appealing to the younger voters.
It seems fair to note that the above observation requires a leap of faith: i.e. that young people will vote in large numbers this year, unlike what has historically been the case. And whereas that is not at all inconceivable--young people do seem more energized than they have been in the past several election cycles--it is far from a given that the youth vote will actually materialize, in any significant numbers. (Come to think of it, George McGovern was quite popular among the same demographic in 1972; in the end, however, he won only Massachusetts and DC--a rather inglorious finish, despite his overwhelming support among young people.)
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Old 09-27-2008, 04:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Kender View Post
According to the New York Times, Obama won. This is based on what the two candidates had to accomplish.
This is by no means a unanimous opinion. David Yepsen, of The Des Moines Register--a Democratic-leaning newspaper (which, however, is not nearly so leftist as The New York Times)--had this to say about the matter:

"It was one of the most substantive debates in recent presidential campaign history and John McCain won it.

"The Arizona senator was cool, informed and forceful in Friday’s first presidential debate of the general election campaign.

"He repeatedly put Barack Obama on the defensive throughout the 90 minutes session. Obama did little to ease voter concerns that he’s experienced enough to handle foreign and defense policy. That was his number one task Friday night and he failed.

"Instead he was often his old meandering self, unable to state a quick, forceful position. Polls taken in the coming days should show McCain holding on to his trump card in the race - the view that he’s better equipped to be commander in chief. ...

"McCain was expected to win on questions of foreign policy and national defense. That’s been his background. Where he routed Obama was on economic and spending questions as he repeatedly accusing Obama of using earmarks and wanting to spend too much."

Here is the link: DesMoinesRegister.com | Des Moines PluckPersona | The Des Moines Register
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 09-27-2008, 04:33 PM
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Originally Posted by pjohns View Post
It seems fair to note that the above observation requires a leap of faith: i.e. that young people will vote in large numbers this year, unlike what has historically been the case. And whereas that is not at all inconceivable--young people do seem more energized than they have been in the past several election cycles--it is far from a given that the youth vote will actually materialize, in any significant numbers. (Come to think of it, George McGovern was quite popular among the same demographic in 1972; in the end, however, he won only Massachusetts and DC--a rather inglorious finish, despite his overwhelming support among young people.)
You are right, many of the young will not turn out to vote. Why the 18 point shift in the elderly is kinda fascinating, don't you think?
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McCain Losing Ground With Older Voters: Campaign Notebook
Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- John McCain is losing ground with older Americans, a group that consistently has high turnout at the voting booth.

Barack Obama jumped to a 46-42 percent lead among those 65 and older in the latest Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll. That's an 18 percentage-point swing since mid-August, when the poll showed McCain with a 50-36 percent advantage.

People 65 and older are among Americans most concerned about financial upheaval, according to the poll, taken Sept 19-22. Only 11 percent say they're better off than they were four years ago, compared with 24 percent of all respondents; 8 percent of the older Americans say the country is moving in the right direction, compared with 13 percent overall.
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Old 09-27-2008, 05:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Pragmatist View Post
You are right, many of the young will not turn out to vote. Why the 18 point shift in the elderly is kinda fascinating, don't you think?
The Bloomberg/LA Times survey you cite is certainly suggestive. I had not seen it previously.

It makes we wonder: Are these findings corroborated by other polls, or is this a mere outlier? And what was the methodology used?

These are not intended as mere rhetorical questions. I do not know the answers. But I would be very interested in learning more about the subject.
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Old 09-27-2008, 10:22 PM
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a poll gave it to Obama. I was impressed McCain did better then I thought he would "Politically"

I think though there were more times Obama answered the question and McCain sidestepped it.

Round 1 in debates goes to Obama, poll says - CNN.com
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Old 09-27-2008, 10:53 PM
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Originally Posted by pjohns View Post
It seems fair to note that the above observation requires a leap of faith: i.e. that young people will vote in large numbers this year, unlike what has historically been the case. And whereas that is not at all inconceivable--young people do seem more energized than they have been in the past several election cycles--it is far from a given that the youth vote will actually materialize, in any significant numbers. (Come to think of it, George McGovern was quite popular among the same demographic in 1972; in the end, however, he won only Massachusetts and DC--a rather inglorious finish, despite his overwhelming support among young people.)
Yeah, but Bobby Kennedy also had a lot of youth support. That's the first political race I ever worked on. My candidate was killed. I was too young to vote, but I'm not sure I would have gone for McGovern if I could.
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Old 09-28-2008, 08:17 AM
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As far as polls go, going into the debate Obama held a clear lead. So if you are going to judge the debate by polls, all Obama had to do was hold his own and he won it.
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Old 09-30-2008, 08:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Pragmatist View Post
You are right, many of the young will not turn out to vote. Why the 18 point shift in the elderly is kinda fascinating, don't you think?
If you look at the details of that poll, it consisted of 66% democrats and 33 % republicans..

No wonder the results? DAH..

What good is the poll if it skews the dataset by such a wide margin?
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Old 09-30-2008, 12:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Truth for a Change View Post
If you look at the details of that poll, it consisted of 66% democrats and 33 % republicans..

No wonder the results? DAH..

What good is the poll if it skews the dataset by such a wide margin?
Hmmm.....kinda like when they only give you the option of picking the two candidates, omit the rest, and use these results as justification not to include anyone other than their own in the debates?
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Old 09-30-2008, 12:37 PM
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What was that old saying about lies, damned lies and statistics?
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A panda walks into a cafe. He orders a sandwich, eats it, then draws a gun and fires two shots in the air.

"Why?" asks the confused waiter, as the panda makes toward the exit. The panda produces a badly punctuated wildlife manual and tosses it over his shoulder.

"I'm a panda," he says at the door. "Look it up."

The waiter turns to the relevant entry and, sure enough, finds an explanation.

"Panda. Large black-and-white bear-like mammal, native to China. Eats, shoots and leaves."

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