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Originally Posted by Atabap
OK, they have petro-wealth. How much of their growth is due to economic and technological innovation? Can we expect S. Arabia to assert similar hegemony in their region of the globe? Mexico?
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Not much of their economy is based in technology, most of it is, as you pointed out, in petroleum (and heavy industry). If I were predicting a Russian superpower TOMORROW, that would be a valid criticism, but every superpower in world history has developed from a country of raw material exports to one of mixed industry and technology. Given a reasonable timeline for US decline and Russian growth, like say a century, it is not unfathomable that Russia could, and likely will develop greater technological production capabilities.
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Understood. I just don't know which trends you're looking at. Besides the assertions issued below, where are your data? No big deal if you don't have any; I never provide any either (do your own dam research!).
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The girl is coming over to go for a run in a bit, but I'll provide the sources from a paper I wrote during undergrad when I get online this evening or tomorrow. I prove conclusively in my paper (which was 20 pages I think, nothing great, but it was undergrad) that the US would benefit in the long-term with increased cooperation with the Russian Federation. Essentially, their economy is growing at a healthy rate and not the inflationary rate of the PRC, but we'll do the numbers later, deal?
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Dude, I keep tabs daily on our military and I see nothing to indicate that we're in martial decline. What is making you think we're becoming militarily weaker?
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Our military isn't weaker, I didn't suggest that; we can kill anybody we choose. The use of force in the modern world is not the same as it was in the 1930's however, and political legitimacy plays a BIG role in engaging in wars now. Our country has lost almost all of our political capital and international political power because of our actions abroad, especially in the Mid East. Coupled with a weakened economy, this diminishes the international impact our military prowess can deliver.
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Well, we didn't yet have much use for a military, but the United States a hundred years ago already had far and away the most wealth of any nation in the world per capita and the highest GDP by far. In short, we may not have been able or willing to project it, but a hundred years ago the United States was already the most powerful country on the planet.
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I doubt either of us will be able to find figures (if you can, go for it), but the Empires of Europe prior to WWI had far more capital-garnering ability than we did, and by all historical accounts it appears that Great Britain ruled the roost up until the German arms race.
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Hey, I wasn't getting into the veracity of their claims, just explaining why the American responses you complained about might have seemed so hostile. But it isn't as if you seem to care. Gads, you're the most anti-American libertarian (hey, that rhymes!!) I've ever encountered.
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On the contrary, I want to see the United States survive and retain great power status (since hegemony is all but lost at this point, and a multi-polar world is all but assured), but given our moronic foreign policy and even stupider economic policies at home and abroad, I just don't see it happening. You mistake my recognition of genuine problems with anti-American sentiment.
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And it isn't rational to look at patriotic statements and simply dismiss them as anachronistic jingoism.
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No, it isn't, and I'm not doing that at all. To simply tout patriotism and ignore the very significant changes in the world since the twentieth century however IS irrational. Bourne especially is guilty of this, and appears as though you are suffering from a similar affliction. One must realize that in order to address a problem (and we have many) one must first IDENTIFY IT. To simply dismiss the very real possibility of Russian hegemony is nothing more than patriotic fervor and demonstrates a lack of any real thought on the matter and summary dismissal. If I suggested that Tajikistan was the next Rome, you would have reason to doubt, but the Russian Federation, whether or not we care to admit it, are a force to be reckoned with, now or later.