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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 02-05-2008, 11:10 PM
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Don't forget Delaware and Georgia and he's now got a big lead in Idaho and Colorado.
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 02-05-2008, 11:19 PM
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Earily results in Cali are not good for Obama, Hillary leading 2 to 1. But it is still very earily.
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 02-05-2008, 11:29 PM
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He's just barely hanging in there in Utah.
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old 02-06-2008, 12:21 AM
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They're listing Cali as a win for Hillary, but it is only 15% is in.
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Old 02-06-2008, 01:43 AM
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Clinton isn't "way" ahead int he delegate count. She's ahead to be sure, but to say that she's way ahead isn't accurate. Beyond that, she has the support of the superdelegates which has NOTHING to do with democracy. It is what it is.

Barack is on the rise. Winning 13 states (at the time of this post) and being highly competitive in all but one (Arkansas), his delegate count should be good at the end of the day.
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Old 02-06-2008, 10:54 AM
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Seems like Clinton is coming ahead of Obama. Man this is horrible , at least he won in Georgia, right?
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Old 02-06-2008, 11:43 AM
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I worked through the whole primary schedule yesterday at another site. My conclusion is that neither Hillary nor Obama can win the primary outright. It is mathematically impossible.

At the end of the day, which ever has the larger delegate total will be the defacto winner. In all probability, that will be Hillary.

It is also to be noted that Obama is clearly doing well with the so-called 'wine-track' voters and losing the 'beer-track' voters which Hillary is where Hillary's strength is.

In my opinion, the 'wine-track' is not a good place to be for the general election given that the 'beer-track' usually picks the winner in a general. Wine-track candidates have traditionally done poorly in general election. Kerry is a good example. They whole Kerry faction is behind Obama.
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Old 02-06-2008, 01:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by White Rabbit View Post
I worked through the whole primary schedule yesterday at another site. My conclusion is that neither Hillary nor Obama can win the primary outright. It is mathematically impossible.

At the end of the day, which ever has the larger delegate total will be the defacto winner. In all probability, that will be Hillary.

It is also to be noted that Obama is clearly doing well with the so-called 'wine-track' voters and losing the 'beer-track' voters which Hillary is where Hillary's strength is.

In my opinion, the 'wine-track' is not a good place to be for the general election given that the 'beer-track' usually picks the winner in a general. Wine-track candidates have traditionally done poorly in general election. Kerry is a good example. They whole Kerry faction is behind Obama.
You might have a point about the economic divide, but I think that Obama is starting to close that gap. I also think that when you have to make the decision between Obama and McCain, I think he would pick up the "beer-track" people there.

It's important to note that Obama has picked up states where the majority of the residents are "beer-track" instead of "wine-track" such as Georgia, Alabama, Kansas, Iowa, Idaho, Alaska, and Utah (traditionally Republican states). Clinton picked up the traditionally "wine" states such as New York and California.

I don't think things are as clear as we would like for them to be and I'm quite sure that the Democratic race for the nomination is going to run up to the nominating convention. I'm still holding out that New Mexico will fall in the Obama camp at the end of the day.
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Old 02-06-2008, 01:55 PM
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An interesting note. In California the polls were critically short of Democrat ballots causing hour long delays in voting, even after using up all the hispanic ballots and other types of ballots. It is clear there has been a major shift of Republicans to the Democrat side of the isle.
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Old 02-06-2008, 02:04 PM
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Two important things from yesterday that need to go not unnoticed. The pattern Generally is that Hillary has been winning Republican dominated Blue states. There is also indication in California that the majority Latino vote was for Hillary and many independents in CA were not involved in the primary but polls indicate a large majority favoring Barrack in a general election against McCain, Romney or Huckabee. Barrack needs to reach out to the Latino American and other non white communities. The picture for the general election might be Hillary getting defeated in Blue states by Republicans whereas Barrack could get a big boost from independents nationwide.
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