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Originally Posted by Comrade Joe
Iran will hit back. It is not a broken backed country like Iraq.
Expect oil to double in price. Any Arab country that allows Israel to use its airspace to attack Iran will be punished. These oil producing states will watch as the gulf goes up in a blaze.
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Yes, asymmetrical warfare is the preferred kind among those who are short on both military might and a sense of honor. Such "warfare" is to the warrior ethic approximately what eye-gouging and rabbit punching are to pugilism.
Even so, the price of a barrel of oil would hardly have time to double. Certainly, there would be a temporary spike, as Chicken Little speculators began to fear the worst; but any attempt by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz would quickly be frustrated by the US Navy's Fifth Fleet--to phrase it as gently as possible.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Comrade Joe
An attack on Iran will mean Iraq is one country that will be used. If this happens the British base in Basra will become a graveyard. Southern Iraq has around 10 million SHia Muslims and they will hurt the British there. If i was Gordon Brown i would be warning Israel that any attack will also be considered an attack on the UK. Obviously he is too gutless to do this, he would rather sit back and watch thousdands of British troops get massacred.
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I do not entirely share your faith that the Shiites in southern Iraq would regard the Shiite-majority Iran as its savior. Certainly, it is possible that some of the Shiites there might see things that way, just as many Kurds in northern Iraq feel a sense of solidarity with their Turkish brethren. But that is far from clear to me at this point. As the old saying goes, only time will tell.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Comrade Joe
If Irans peaceful nuclear bases are struck then expect Israel's non peaceful base to be hit. Dimona will be a legitimate target for Iran and it will be well within their capabilities to strike it.
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Did you say something about Iran's "peaceful nuclear bases"? This is probably not an appropriate place to introduce deadpan humor into the discussion.